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Posts Tagged ‘donald trump

Donald Trump: Why pollsters got it wrong

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poll_wrong.jpgPolling (just like risk calculation in businesses) is as much a mathematical calculation as it is an art. You need to have the sense that few have to get it right. In last 10 years or so, it has become more of mathematical model than anytime before. Just like the 2007-09 financial crisis which brought to fore risk calculation model errors, similarly the current election result has brought to notice the polling model errors.

Trump campaign used to attack polls as fake and political hit jobs regularly. For my analysis I want to assume the intentions behind polls were pure. So why did they get it so wrong, barring a couple of polls (which can be owed to chance). I believe the polls had severe model errors, which didn’t took into account a lot of factors.

Just like 2007-09 when polls failed to take into account correlation risk across geographies, the polls failed to take into account the anger among the electorate. Also Trump was a new phenomenon, who was not someone one would like to say one likes, but was bang on message and policies. That created shy voters who did not admit to pollsters they were voting for Trump.

Polls also failed to take into account the contempt the main stream media had for Trump. So much so that anyone saying he/she supported Trump was bashed not just on social media but by mainstream media pundits too for being a bigot. I remember one of the Kardashians had to roll back on her comment of voting for Trump after the backlash. Would she have voted for Clinton? I very much doubt so. When bashing of a candidate becomes an acceptable thing and anyone supporting him is touted as a bad person by responsible people in media, it becomes difficult for one to admit the support anymore.

The anger, the shyness gave rise to the errors in legacy polling methods.

What polls also failed to take into account was the contempt for the media. Gallup poll which has tracked trust in media for last 40 years or so, found the trust to be the lowest in 2016. Two-thirds don’t trust media. And that same distrusting media was out to get Trump in full force. Media distrust fueled Trump support.

All these factors have to be modeled into polling methodology in future. The change election with a flawed candidate with an appealing message, the anger in the populace, the creation of shy voters and the bias in the media were few of the factors that broke the polls this year.

Hope the pollsters learn from these errors and evolve for better.

Written by arpitgarg

November 9, 2016 at 5:34 pm

Posted in Media, Political

Tagged with , , , , , ,

How Ted Cruz became just another one of Washington Cartel

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ted_cruz.jpgFor those who have followed US Primaries, one name that would remember apart from Donald Trump would be Ted Cruz. He was a highly un-liked figure among the Elite Political circle and he called them ‘The Washington Cartel’. He was all hopeful to win the nomination with this anti-establishment pitch against Jeb Bush. That until Donald Trump happened and his dream was shattered.

Then there were personal clashes. Pro-Cruz Super PAC released a stormy pic of Trump’s wife with a snide caption. Trump responded by retweeting a bad tweet about Cruz’s wife. Cruz never apologized and neither did Trump. During the last leg of desperation, there were further vitriolic attacks. Trump called into question Cruz’s father to which Cruz responded by calling Trump a sniveling coward.

All said and done, Trump was nominated by voters with huge number of votes. Maybe he is good, maybe he is bad, but he did get the votes. And in democracy, it is the will of the people that matters. Pro-establishment contenders, who felt that their paradise was broken, broke the pledge and didn’t support Trump. And it was expected of Corrupt Washington Cartel, in Cruz’s own terms. But when Cruz attended the GOP convention, it was expected of him to honor his pledge and support Trump. But he never did. What he called from convention floor was for ‘vote of conscience’.

We all know what he meant. He gave his supporters a call to vote for Hillary. Not that most of Republicans will do that. By definition, their conscience is against Hillary Clinton. So that’s what they will do. But what Cruz did was he became one with Washington cartel that he said he so despised. He came out as a whiny loser and opportunistic person.

Even his staunch supporters and delegates opposed and whoo’ed him. Reason he gave later to his supporters was, “Pledge” was not a blanket approval to support someone who disrespected my wife and father. Well your supporting super PAC did the same to Trump’s wife. You spread rumors about Carson. The list can go on and on. It was the election time and it should have been left at that. People decided and anyone who calls himself, not a part of ‘Washington Cartel’ should have knows better than to insult the will of people.

There is one more reason that Cruz lost respect and support by his cute act. Everyone knows these politicians for what they really are in their personal life; the skeletons and the affairs. For Cruz to feign this holier than thou attitude now, makes people just shake their heads in disbelief. It’s what the Washington Cartel does. It’s what a Bush or a Romney or a Clinton would do. By his one single act, he destroyed all what he stood for. He became just anther one of Washington Cartel.

Written by arpitgarg

July 22, 2016 at 6:18 pm

Trick to Beat Trump

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trump.jpgAfter the race has almost slipped out of the hands of establishment candidates, they have started hitting Trump hard. Given that Trump has captured the imagination of the nation just like Obama did in 2008, the attack is not working at all.

From Rubio, Cruz to the Republican Party elites, all are going crazy against Trump. They might think it is the best way to stop him, but they couldn’t be more wrong. This would earn more votes for Trump. I’ll tell you why. When Trump lambasts Washington, politicians, GOP elites, it comes out as one man’s fight against the whole establishment. People like that and relate with that. “See a guy is taking on the elites, just like I always wanted”, people think. One guy against the world. It always works. And it is working for Trump.

The more Trump is attacked, the more he wins. When the whole bunch of people start attacking a single person, we all know how it looks like. A herd attack. Unfair fight. The bunch becomes whole. It has never worked, nor will it work now. People’s belief in Trump solidifies by seeing predators attacking him.

So what could Trump’s detractors do? Well it’s tricky and manipulative but here it is. The worst liked people of the establishment, the worst of Washington political elites should start supporting Trump. There should be a daily new endorsement for Trump by worst of the GOP leaders. This would make people think twice as to why? Why are these bad people supporting Trump? Something doesn’t seem right. Maybe Trump has made peace with them. Trump is not for our good.

To praise Trump is the only way to put him down. Not just praise him, publicly announce that Trump is one of their own and this is all just an act by one of their own. They want Trump to win as he is their pal. Believe me this would destroy his support base of angry people. No point attacking him on Trump University, KKK, immigration etc. His supporters rally behind him with each attack. Praise him to put him down.

Written by arpitgarg

March 5, 2016 at 3:08 am

Posted in Political

Tagged with , , , ,

Pope just Trumped himself

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I don’t really like to go after religious figures as faith of a lot of people is concerned. But when Pope Francis on his visit to Mexico took a dig at Donald Trump by saying, “A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian”, I couldn’t but feel amused.

I have studied in a Christian missionary school for 12 years and have a lot of regard for the faith. But this one was hilarious. More than anyone Christians should be offended by what Pope just said. In fact Pope’s reflection in the mirror should be offended by the man. It was a self-goal. Before I begin, have a look at the image below.

vatican.jpg

You see a sanctuary surrounded by end to end wall, that’s the Vatican City, where Pope lives. It is the place of Christian faith. I have been there once and it’s majestic. But for Pope to question walls, reeks of bad judgement. To be fair he was just trying to be good to his hosts, the Mexicans, who have taken quite a beating from Trump of late.

Vatican City is 110 acres of walled enclave. And to me it’s fine. But Pope’s blooper seemed to have left a lot of his follower’s red faced. They are having hard time justifying the Vatican wall. In a bid to out-wit Trump, Pope has just Trumped himself here. Well happens to the best of us.

Written by arpitgarg

February 19, 2016 at 3:52 am

Trump Rhetoric: Vibrant Democracy

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trump.jpgThere has been a lot of hullabaloo in international media about a phenomenon called Donald Trump. Indian media has called him names; UK went ahead and had a discussion in the parliament deriding Trump. Gulf countries are too appalled by his rhetoric.

I have a different take on this. I believe Trumps rhetoric strengthens the democracy. Don’t start scoffing. Let me explain. First of all I don’t believe democracy has fulfilled why it was conceived. There is no power to people. Money abuse and Corruption has kept power in the hands of top few, both in US (oldest democracy) and India (biggest democracy). Do I have an alternative proposal to democracy? No. At this point we have live with it, but it has not functioned well.

Stating my lack of fondness with Democracy let me explain why I believe Trump’s rhetoric augurs well with it in its current form. After all what is Democracy? Power to people. When power goes to people to elect a leader, run their country, they will choose whoever they like. Now who will the people like? One they understand and who they think will do good for them and the nation. If people are supporting Trump, it means they like what he is saying. In the sense he is mirroring people’s views. Isn’t this what Democracy is?

Now one can argue, if it’s a correct thing for people to choose Trump. Are people doing the right thing? It would be calling the judgement of people in question. This will be to question the concept of Democracy itself. Remember, Power to People!

So you can question if Democracy is good or bad that is letting such a rhetoric from Trump flow. But what Trump is doing is a sign of vibrant Democracy. In the same vein, people berating Trump are also sign of bubbling Democracy.

No Harm, No Foul!

Written by arpitgarg

February 16, 2016 at 6:27 pm

Posted in Political

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How do Right Wing win when their policies are unpopular?

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left_right.jpgFirst of all, to the uninitiated, what is right wing and left wing? Right wing parties are for open economy, no Govt control, no subsidy, no freebies, all private. They believe competition is better for economy. Work hard and get reward. Left wing parties are for equal distribution of wealth. They believe Govt should take control and provide help to the poor. Basic human right to food and shelter. Top 1% should not get all.

If you see Left speaks for the lower strata of economy, which makes the majority as wealth lies in the hands of top 1%. This makes Right wing beliefs unpopular, correct? Only prosperous people should be supporting them. By this logic Right wing parties should never be able to win any democratic election. But as you will see over the years, they do win. How are they able to get popular vote with their unpopular policies?

This question has confounded me too. But as always, there has to be an answer. Below is what I think. Right wing parties can never win a democratic election with their governance and economic policies. So they downplay these policies during elections. All Right (or center-Right), have a secondary poll plank, which they use to win election. It is either Security or God or Morality. Let me give you an example.

In United States, Republicans are the Right wing. Their secondary plank is Fear of Terrorism. They promise to keep the country secure with heavy hand. They stand for anti-abortion and anti-gay (they say it is anti-God). They have been able to drum up support on these issues over the years and have carried out their economic policies easily.

Even in India if you see, BJP, the Right wing, plays Hindutva card (their secondary poll plank), without which it will not be possible for them to win an election. Widespread corruption has also helped them as of now, to drum up support for their economic policies. However it will be tough in the long run.

I am not questioning either Right or Left economic policies here. What my intention is to understand how the Right has withstood the democracy. This has been the case historically. With time the anti-gay and anti-abortion rhetoric will subside. But playing on fear and immigrants will remain.

In last 200 years or so, with the advent of democracy, Right and Left both has started to move towards center. In my opinion they will become identical in due time. BJP’s decision to continue MNREGA and Food Security points to that. Advent of Liberal Donald Trump as frontrunner Republican in US is another classical example.

Written by arpitgarg

February 15, 2016 at 3:18 pm

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