ArpitGarg's Weblog

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Posts Tagged ‘election

चुनावी हवा

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चुनावी हवा कुछ ऐसी चली पिछले दिनों,
जनता ने पूछा कि कहाँ गया विकास,
तुमको देना होगा २२ साल का हिसाब,
ये सुन, झांके बगलें, ढूंढें जुमला साहब|

चुनावी हवा कुछ ऐसी चली पिछले दिनों,
जनेऊ पहन मंदिर जाने की लगी दौड़,
तिलक लगा के शहर भर में छा गया,
हो जाओ बगल, नया पुजारी आ गया|

चुनावी हवा कुछ ऐसी चली पिछले दिनों,
चौबेजी बनने चले जो, छब्बे भी न बन पाए,
हुंकार जो मिलकर बोली आंदोलन की,
सत्ता के विष ने, सबको जा लीला|

चुनावी हवा कुछ ऐसी चली पिछले दिनों,
क्या चाचा भतीजा, क्या बेटा क्या बाप,
अपना सुख नापें, सब आपों आप,
हाथ किसी के न आया कुछ भी|

चुनावी हवा कुछ ऐसी चली पिछले दिनों,
वादा था, सब घोटालेबाज जाएंगे जेल,
पर शब्दों का मोल सत्ता ने हल्का नापा,
सब एक ही है परिवार, बच्चे मम्मी पापा|

चुनावी हवा कुछ ऐसी चली पिछले दिनों,
जितना कर लो विश्वास, टूटना ही है आखिर,
सत्ता के सब भूखे हैं, आत्मा से सब सूखे हैं,
है रीत पुरानी सदियों से, क्यूँ रोये तू||

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Written by arpitgarg

January 12, 2018 at 6:28 am

Posted in Hindi, Poetry, Political

Tagged with , ,

Obama and Trump: Implementing each others agenda

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obama_trump.jpgFirst African-American President of United States, Barack Obama, will vacate office in Jan and Billionaire Donald Trump will take office. It is well documented that they are opposites when it comes to their electoral agenda. What I want to touch upon is something that is not discussed too often.

Democrats promote higher Govt. spending and immigrant reforms, while Republicans represent smaller Govt. and less immigration. But the problem is when you support certain position too openly, you get push-back. Obama faced a lot of resistance when it came to implementing his agenda. At the end, he couldn’t achieve what he wanted to in terms of medicare and public spending. What he achieved was deporting more immigrants than George Bush did. In the end he was able to implement the agenda of Republican Party more successfully than of his own Party.

I have similar prediction for Trump. At the end of his tenure, he might be able to do more on medicare and public spending than tightening immigration. He would be successful in implementing Democrats agenda more than Republicans. Begs the question why?

When you implement opposition’s agenda, you get their support. Your own party supports you anyways. But while implementing your own agenda, you don’t get opposition support. Hence the result.

Instead of shaping policy by legislation and bureaucracy, US Presidents most potent weapon has been appointing Supreme Court Justices. That is what guides the agenda and that is what defines the policy.

Written by arpitgarg

December 20, 2016 at 2:19 pm

Posted in Political

Tagged with , , , , ,

Donald Trump: Why pollsters got it wrong

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poll_wrong.jpgPolling (just like risk calculation in businesses) is as much a mathematical calculation as it is an art. You need to have the sense that few have to get it right. In last 10 years or so, it has become more of mathematical model than anytime before. Just like the 2007-09 financial crisis which brought to fore risk calculation model errors, similarly the current election result has brought to notice the polling model errors.

Trump campaign used to attack polls as fake and political hit jobs regularly. For my analysis I want to assume the intentions behind polls were pure. So why did they get it so wrong, barring a couple of polls (which can be owed to chance). I believe the polls had severe model errors, which didn’t took into account a lot of factors.

Just like 2007-09 when polls failed to take into account correlation risk across geographies, the polls failed to take into account the anger among the electorate. Also Trump was a new phenomenon, who was not someone one would like to say one likes, but was bang on message and policies. That created shy voters who did not admit to pollsters they were voting for Trump.

Polls also failed to take into account the contempt the main stream media had for Trump. So much so that anyone saying he/she supported Trump was bashed not just on social media but by mainstream media pundits too for being a bigot. I remember one of the Kardashians had to roll back on her comment of voting for Trump after the backlash. Would she have voted for Clinton? I very much doubt so. When bashing of a candidate becomes an acceptable thing and anyone supporting him is touted as a bad person by responsible people in media, it becomes difficult for one to admit the support anymore.

The anger, the shyness gave rise to the errors in legacy polling methods.

What polls also failed to take into account was the contempt for the media. Gallup poll which has tracked trust in media for last 40 years or so, found the trust to be the lowest in 2016. Two-thirds don’t trust media. And that same distrusting media was out to get Trump in full force. Media distrust fueled Trump support.

All these factors have to be modeled into polling methodology in future. The change election with a flawed candidate with an appealing message, the anger in the populace, the creation of shy voters and the bias in the media were few of the factors that broke the polls this year.

Hope the pollsters learn from these errors and evolve for better.

Written by arpitgarg

November 9, 2016 at 5:34 pm

Posted in Media, Political

Tagged with , , , , , ,

Cruz v/s Bernie: Who helped Whom

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us_elections.jpgMy last week’s analysis of Ted Cruz’s speech would be incomplete without mentioning Bernie’s speech at DNC. Bernie Sanders has been one politician who has got a lot of love from a lot of people. In college campuses across US, he is a like a human cult. It was a change in American people who have been perceived around the world as capitalists. A socialist getting so much support in US showed the world that socialism as a phenomenon still packs a punch or two.

Quick to the comparison between the stance taken by Bernie and Cruz and it’s ramifications to the party nominee’s chances coming November. Ted Cruz was jeered off the stage and was regarded by overwhelming Republicans as selfish person preparing for his own 2020 bid. When he suggested ‘vote your conscience’, which had undertones of helping Hillary to win, it enraged Republicans, who have nothing but hatred for Hillary. His action solidified support behind Trump, who was the last man standing against Hillary Clinton. It looked like other elite Republicans were not repugnant to Hillary becoming President. This consolidated Republican base around Trump. Some suggest that this might even solidify anti-Hillary base around him. We know it includes pro-Bernie crowd.

Now to Bernie Sanders. Honorable man that he is, he decided to keep his pledge and support Hilary Clinton even when it became evident that Democratic Party worked in tandem with Hillary to rig the race. Chaos on convention floor suggested that his followers haven’t taken to this idea. They feel it’s a sellout. Supporting her without showing a ‘pinch of salt’ has been a setback to the young people who have been part of heated debates as to why Hillary is bad and Bernie is good. All those people are left as sitting ducks.

It seems Ted Cruz rejection was a better idea than Bernie’e endorsement. Maybe Bernie’s rejection would have helped Hillary as it would have solidified anti-Trump base behind her. For it to have happened Bernie should have come out as a bad and selfish person. However he came out as a weak leader who is too tired to fight and who is ready to abandon the ship.

Difference lies in the supporters. Cruz and Trump had two things in common. First they both wanted to defeat Hillary. Second they both were anti-establishment. Now that Cruz looks ‘not opposed’ to Hillary to keep his hope for 2020 bid intact, it’s easy for his supporters to move to Trump since Trump is also anti-establishment and is the only person who wants to defeat Hillary.

On the other hand Bernie and Hillary supporters were opposites. One were anti-establishment, other were pro-establishment. It’s right they both hated Trump, but Bernie hasn’t done a Cruz to give his supporters a reason to support Hillary. By endorsing Hillary so wholeheartedly, he has in fact endorsed the power of Big Money. It’s like a win for the establishment, what he fought against.

This has lost him a lot of fans just like Cruz lost a lot of his supporters. But the difference is Cruz people solidified against another anti-establishment Trump. It doesn’t seem to be happening for pro-establishment Hillary.

Written by arpitgarg

July 27, 2016 at 3:18 am

Posted in Political

Tagged with , , , , , ,

Trick to Beat Trump

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trump.jpgAfter the race has almost slipped out of the hands of establishment candidates, they have started hitting Trump hard. Given that Trump has captured the imagination of the nation just like Obama did in 2008, the attack is not working at all.

From Rubio, Cruz to the Republican Party elites, all are going crazy against Trump. They might think it is the best way to stop him, but they couldn’t be more wrong. This would earn more votes for Trump. I’ll tell you why. When Trump lambasts Washington, politicians, GOP elites, it comes out as one man’s fight against the whole establishment. People like that and relate with that. “See a guy is taking on the elites, just like I always wanted”, people think. One guy against the world. It always works. And it is working for Trump.

The more Trump is attacked, the more he wins. When the whole bunch of people start attacking a single person, we all know how it looks like. A herd attack. Unfair fight. The bunch becomes whole. It has never worked, nor will it work now. People’s belief in Trump solidifies by seeing predators attacking him.

So what could Trump’s detractors do? Well it’s tricky and manipulative but here it is. The worst liked people of the establishment, the worst of Washington political elites should start supporting Trump. There should be a daily new endorsement for Trump by worst of the GOP leaders. This would make people think twice as to why? Why are these bad people supporting Trump? Something doesn’t seem right. Maybe Trump has made peace with them. Trump is not for our good.

To praise Trump is the only way to put him down. Not just praise him, publicly announce that Trump is one of their own and this is all just an act by one of their own. They want Trump to win as he is their pal. Believe me this would destroy his support base of angry people. No point attacking him on Trump University, KKK, immigration etc. His supporters rally behind him with each attack. Praise him to put him down.

Written by arpitgarg

March 5, 2016 at 3:08 am

Posted in Political

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By-Election Result: What it means?

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By-election results surprised quite a few. It was first major vote since the General elections earlier this year. Some even called it a feedback on 100 days of the much celebrated Govt.

Outcome seems far from promising for the ruling party. Grand alliance in Bihar have triumphed. Karnataka and Punjab are also not a good omen.

Besides General elections, the biggest achievement of the PM seems to be bringing together the cut-throat foes in Bihar. To gain some perspective we only have to look back

There has always been a consolidation against the ruling party, however the ideological differences may be. JDU-BJP alliance of the past; NC joining NDA Govt. are just some examples. Late 70’s saw anti-Congress forces coming together only to fall apart. Such were their opposing beliefs. It was not until Vajpayee’s management that different ideologues learned to work together under the Common Minimum Program (CMP).

The CMP coalition method perfected by Vajpayee has come back to haunt BJP. Now that Congress has become irrelevant, regional parties have found a new foe. What confounds me is that the once anti-Congress parties have become anti-BJP. Perhaps they were always anti-ruling. It’s what gave them their anti-establishment credentials; a channel for much abused poor to vent out its anger.

The future seems even trickier for BJP. It has got a feel of Congress’ shoes. What a collective onslaught feels like; the fort getting attacked. It never saw a bigger victory and it will have to see even bigger opposition.

Written by arpitgarg

August 25, 2014 at 2:42 pm

मेला वोट का

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देखो फिर से लगा है मेला,
तरह तरह के हैं नट-खेल,
कोई है पत्तों का जादूगर,
कोई सौदागर किस्मत का।

कोई दंगों के डर से डरा रहा,
कोई है घोटाले सुना रहा,
जात-पात की देता दुहाई,
कोई धर्म का हाथ भड़ा रहा।

एक करतबी मिला मुझे,
जो रस्सी पे चलता था,
इस ओर नहीं, उस ओर नहीं,
बीच रास्ते निकलता सा।

था एक मदारी वादों का,
बस वादों का, न इरादों का,
सब बंदर बनकर उछल रहे,
पैसे बटोर वो निकल लिया।

दाढ़ी वाला बाबा आया,
साथ अपने कुछ सपने लाया,
नयी तरक्की, दिशा नयी,
न हो बड़े व्यापारी की ढाल कहीं।

एक गोरा चिट्टा बच्चा आया,
बड़ा नाम और इतिहास लाया,
हर हाथ शक्ति की बात करी,
घोटालों का आरोप, न हुआ बरी।

हुंकार भरी एक बैरी ने,
कहता है मैं हूँ पाक साफ़,
जनता के मन में संशय है,
किस करवट ऊँठ ये बैठेगा।

सब हैं मेले की मस्ती में,
हर चीज़ बिके है सस्ती में,
जिसे भी मिले बंपर इनाम,
कर के देगा वो कुछ काम?

Written by arpitgarg

March 21, 2014 at 4:13 pm

Posted in General/Society, Hindi, Poetry

Tagged with , , , , ,

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