Archive for the ‘Political’ Category
Obama and Trump: Implementing each others agenda
First African-American President of United States, Barack Obama, will vacate office in Jan and Billionaire Donald Trump will take office. It is well documented that they are opposites when it comes to their electoral agenda. What I want to touch upon is something that is not discussed too often.
Democrats promote higher Govt. spending and immigrant reforms, while Republicans represent smaller Govt. and less immigration. But the problem is when you support certain position too openly, you get push-back. Obama faced a lot of resistance when it came to implementing his agenda. At the end, he couldn’t achieve what he wanted to in terms of medicare and public spending. What he achieved was deporting more immigrants than George Bush did. In the end he was able to implement the agenda of Republican Party more successfully than of his own Party.
I have similar prediction for Trump. At the end of his tenure, he might be able to do more on medicare and public spending than tightening immigration. He would be successful in implementing Democrats agenda more than Republicans. Begs the question why?
When you implement opposition’s agenda, you get their support. Your own party supports you anyways. But while implementing your own agenda, you don’t get opposition support. Hence the result.
Instead of shaping policy by legislation and bureaucracy, US Presidents most potent weapon has been appointing Supreme Court Justices. That is what guides the agenda and that is what defines the policy.
Ideological death in Democracy?
I was talking to one of my seniors at office about current state of politics. It got me thinking about the ideology in a democracy. We have been brought up in a society where we came to know how much our forefathers had to struggle to achieve the democracy that we live in.
We have learned that political ideology can be broadly divided into left and right with a center. Left leans towards communism, right leans towards capitalism. Let me take an example of India. Historically we have seen Congress and BJP as left and right parties. Over the years they have grown center-left and center-right.
Today, I don’t see any stark difference their ideologies. Whatever keeps them in power. Congress introduced MNREGA and BJP has continued with it. BJP might very well give loan waivers to farmers before 2019 elections. Both the parties have benefited selected business houses in their own capacity. Both are against electoral reforms and hate scrutiny of donations to political parties.
Makes us wonder is there any classical ideology left in politics? In the sense that does society at large support such ideologies of left/right/center? Coz political parties can only adhere to such ideologies as long as people vote for them. In US, right and left has sustained for decent amount of time, given two party system and high percentage of registered members. In India it has moved to a scramble all too soon. Number of regional parties, based on anti-Congress plank, have mushroomed in last 30-40 years. Their ideology is not left/right but is to uplift certain sections of society.
Advent of Trump, an amalgamation of left right and center, signifies a landmark event in democracy. Democracy anyways is a recent experiment on how to run the society. About last 200 years or so. I believe it’s still in a development phase and will take another 200 years or so, to judge the pros and cons. Maybe we will see a new societal system altogether, who knows.
One thing is for certain, the era of discrete left and right might already be over in major democracies of the world.
The Era of Right Wing Populists
Sometime back I called the current decade as the decade of right wing, across the globe. From Japan to India to US. But I would like to add a bit to my stance. It’s the era of right wing populists. Normally right wing politicians are known for fiscal control and anti-populism. The current crop of leaders from Abe to Modi to Trump are from right wing parties but the leaders themselves are populists. This mix of right wing and populism has lefts and liberals in a lurch.
What is to come in future is something to be seen, but I see some good at present. They are beyond the classical mold of right or left. Their parties are right but they themselves have no clear ideologies. They all like claps from the audience, hence populists. They shed the hardline approach of their parties and tread a middle path.
What this has done is broken the barriers. For long politicians in democracies has reaped benefits of a divided electorate. Liberals and Conservatives in US, Nationalists and Seculars in India. Political class likes to keep the people divided in these artificial silos. This fight helps them get elected over and ove. Due to this the Gandhi dynasty in India has prospered and so did Bush/Clinton dynasties in the West.
Modi and Trump, controversial figures in themselves have made people realize this division and how political class has benefitted from it. Don’t get me wrong, in destroying these old barriers, they have created their own. Hindus/Muslims in India to Black/Whites in US. We will have to wait and watch how it evolves.
Next question is, how does the right wing populism pan out. These leaders, since hard liners are able to take decisions which liberal/secular Govt. would never have taken. Currency ban in India to potential poll promises of Trump. In a sense right wing populists are able to take tough decisions. And it’s the decisiveness that people cherishes in them. In itself these leaders are tainted. But in toto they do what none dares.
As with other things, the effects of this right wing populist wave will be evident 10-15 years down the line. Maybe good, maybe bad. Currently we are in a transition era which comes once in a lifetime.
Donald Trump: Why pollsters got it wrong
Polling (just like risk calculation in businesses) is as much a mathematical calculation as it is an art. You need to have the sense that few have to get it right. In last 10 years or so, it has become more of mathematical model than anytime before. Just like the 2007-09 financial crisis which brought to fore risk calculation model errors, similarly the current election result has brought to notice the polling model errors.
Trump campaign used to attack polls as fake and political hit jobs regularly. For my analysis I want to assume the intentions behind polls were pure. So why did they get it so wrong, barring a couple of polls (which can be owed to chance). I believe the polls had severe model errors, which didn’t took into account a lot of factors.
Just like 2007-09 when polls failed to take into account correlation risk across geographies, the polls failed to take into account the anger among the electorate. Also Trump was a new phenomenon, who was not someone one would like to say one likes, but was bang on message and policies. That created shy voters who did not admit to pollsters they were voting for Trump.
Polls also failed to take into account the contempt the main stream media had for Trump. So much so that anyone saying he/she supported Trump was bashed not just on social media but by mainstream media pundits too for being a bigot. I remember one of the Kardashians had to roll back on her comment of voting for Trump after the backlash. Would she have voted for Clinton? I very much doubt so. When bashing of a candidate becomes an acceptable thing and anyone supporting him is touted as a bad person by responsible people in media, it becomes difficult for one to admit the support anymore.
The anger, the shyness gave rise to the errors in legacy polling methods.
What polls also failed to take into account was the contempt for the media. Gallup poll which has tracked trust in media for last 40 years or so, found the trust to be the lowest in 2016. Two-thirds don’t trust media. And that same distrusting media was out to get Trump in full force. Media distrust fueled Trump support.
All these factors have to be modeled into polling methodology in future. The change election with a flawed candidate with an appealing message, the anger in the populace, the creation of shy voters and the bias in the media were few of the factors that broke the polls this year.
Hope the pollsters learn from these errors and evolve for better.
500/1000: A Modi political master stroke
A lot of us would be discussing the unprecedented move in recent Indian politics. I was born in mid 80’s and have not been witness to a full majority PM. Now I know what decisions look like when majority Govt is in power.
I would like to discuss the political aspect of Modi’s move to illegalize 500/100 currency notes. There are profound economic and social aspects too, but will discuss those some other time. Of late Modi was being questioned about 15lac rupees he promised to put in every citizens account. Given the man of high integrity that Modi has created his persona on, it was becoming embarrassing for him and his party. ‘Jumla’ excuse was falling short.
What Modi has done to answer all of the criticism is affirmative action. It’s not that Modi never took steps previously to curb black money. Jan-Dhan, Direct Debit, Income declaration, were some of the steps he took. But they were not that perceptible to general public, who voted for Modi in huge numbers in 2014. This current decision will be perceptible to all and sundry. Most of the voters will have to go to the bank to exchange old 500/1000 note. All of us will know that Modi has done something regarding black money. It is a perceptible action. No more talk of 15lac.
Hence I call it a political master stroke. With the Trump win today, the bull run of outsiders continues unabated, resulting in such out of the box decisions.
I personally feel that Govt. will recover much more than the 15lac per person that Modi promised. By the time the dust settles on 31st Dec, even a 10% non-return of currency notes, leads to huge profits for the Govt. Each note not returned due to it being black money, means that much earning for the Govt. I would like to see RBI calculations in Jan. Knowing Modi, we know those figures will for sure be made public.
Modi was given a presidential mandate, and his performance equals that.
Kejriwal and Modi: Drama Queens or Geniuses?
Recently Kejriwal claimed that BJP and Modi are conspiring to eliminate him. Felt déjà vu to me. A lot of leaders when in opposition have claimed the same against the Govt of the day. One of the most prominent politicians to do it was Narendra Modi. Now I see Kejriwal doing the same. People called Modi Drama Queen then; people call Kejriwal Drama Queen now. What is the truth?
I don’t agree they are Drama Queens, I believe they are sheer Genius. One of the best ways to gain public support and energize your supporters is to play the victim card. “I am working for you so they are trying to kill me”. The motive is to make other side look dirty. Believe me it works; Modi as PM and Kejriwal as CM are shining example of the same.
Feb 20 2014: Congress keeps looking for chances to kill me: Modi
Jul 27 2016: Arvind Kejriwal says PM Narendra Modi may try to get him killed
I remember Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Jayalalita, Mamta Banerjee and most of the regional leaders have made this claim some time or the other. Below are few references to the same. You can find a lot more on web.
19 June 2013: Mamata Banerjee alleges CPM-Maoist plot to kill her
Aug 7 2004: SP conspiring to kill me: Mayawati
Jan 10 2008: Mayawati plots to kill Mulayam, alleges Amar Singh
Oct 31 2008: Jayalalitha claims ‘murderous attack’
Cruz v/s Bernie: Who helped Whom
My last week’s analysis of Ted Cruz’s speech would be incomplete without mentioning Bernie’s speech at DNC. Bernie Sanders has been one politician who has got a lot of love from a lot of people. In college campuses across US, he is a like a human cult. It was a change in American people who have been perceived around the world as capitalists. A socialist getting so much support in US showed the world that socialism as a phenomenon still packs a punch or two.
Quick to the comparison between the stance taken by Bernie and Cruz and it’s ramifications to the party nominee’s chances coming November. Ted Cruz was jeered off the stage and was regarded by overwhelming Republicans as selfish person preparing for his own 2020 bid. When he suggested ‘vote your conscience’, which had undertones of helping Hillary to win, it enraged Republicans, who have nothing but hatred for Hillary. His action solidified support behind Trump, who was the last man standing against Hillary Clinton. It looked like other elite Republicans were not repugnant to Hillary becoming President. This consolidated Republican base around Trump. Some suggest that this might even solidify anti-Hillary base around him. We know it includes pro-Bernie crowd.
Now to Bernie Sanders. Honorable man that he is, he decided to keep his pledge and support Hilary Clinton even when it became evident that Democratic Party worked in tandem with Hillary to rig the race. Chaos on convention floor suggested that his followers haven’t taken to this idea. They feel it’s a sellout. Supporting her without showing a ‘pinch of salt’ has been a setback to the young people who have been part of heated debates as to why Hillary is bad and Bernie is good. All those people are left as sitting ducks.
It seems Ted Cruz rejection was a better idea than Bernie’e endorsement. Maybe Bernie’s rejection would have helped Hillary as it would have solidified anti-Trump base behind her. For it to have happened Bernie should have come out as a bad and selfish person. However he came out as a weak leader who is too tired to fight and who is ready to abandon the ship.
Difference lies in the supporters. Cruz and Trump had two things in common. First they both wanted to defeat Hillary. Second they both were anti-establishment. Now that Cruz looks ‘not opposed’ to Hillary to keep his hope for 2020 bid intact, it’s easy for his supporters to move to Trump since Trump is also anti-establishment and is the only person who wants to defeat Hillary.
On the other hand Bernie and Hillary supporters were opposites. One were anti-establishment, other were pro-establishment. It’s right they both hated Trump, but Bernie hasn’t done a Cruz to give his supporters a reason to support Hillary. By endorsing Hillary so wholeheartedly, he has in fact endorsed the power of Big Money. It’s like a win for the establishment, what he fought against.
This has lost him a lot of fans just like Cruz lost a lot of his supporters. But the difference is Cruz people solidified against another anti-establishment Trump. It doesn’t seem to be happening for pro-establishment Hillary.
How Ted Cruz became just another one of Washington Cartel
For those who have followed US Primaries, one name that would remember apart from Donald Trump would be Ted Cruz. He was a highly un-liked figure among the Elite Political circle and he called them ‘The Washington Cartel’. He was all hopeful to win the nomination with this anti-establishment pitch against Jeb Bush. That until Donald Trump happened and his dream was shattered.
Then there were personal clashes. Pro-Cruz Super PAC released a stormy pic of Trump’s wife with a snide caption. Trump responded by retweeting a bad tweet about Cruz’s wife. Cruz never apologized and neither did Trump. During the last leg of desperation, there were further vitriolic attacks. Trump called into question Cruz’s father to which Cruz responded by calling Trump a sniveling coward.
All said and done, Trump was nominated by voters with huge number of votes. Maybe he is good, maybe he is bad, but he did get the votes. And in democracy, it is the will of the people that matters. Pro-establishment contenders, who felt that their paradise was broken, broke the pledge and didn’t support Trump. And it was expected of Corrupt Washington Cartel, in Cruz’s own terms. But when Cruz attended the GOP convention, it was expected of him to honor his pledge and support Trump. But he never did. What he called from convention floor was for ‘vote of conscience’.
We all know what he meant. He gave his supporters a call to vote for Hillary. Not that most of Republicans will do that. By definition, their conscience is against Hillary Clinton. So that’s what they will do. But what Cruz did was he became one with Washington cartel that he said he so despised. He came out as a whiny loser and opportunistic person.
Even his staunch supporters and delegates opposed and whoo’ed him. Reason he gave later to his supporters was, “Pledge” was not a blanket approval to support someone who disrespected my wife and father. Well your supporting super PAC did the same to Trump’s wife. You spread rumors about Carson. The list can go on and on. It was the election time and it should have been left at that. People decided and anyone who calls himself, not a part of ‘Washington Cartel’ should have knows better than to insult the will of people.
There is one more reason that Cruz lost respect and support by his cute act. Everyone knows these politicians for what they really are in their personal life; the skeletons and the affairs. For Cruz to feign this holier than thou attitude now, makes people just shake their heads in disbelief. It’s what the Washington Cartel does. It’s what a Bush or a Romney or a Clinton would do. By his one single act, he destroyed all what he stood for. He became just anther one of Washington Cartel.
Right to Swift Justice to all
Supreme Court today stayed the demolition of Adarsh Society. The demolition was earlier ordered by High Court. I looked at this piece of news and gave a yawn. I am not able to recollect how long this has been going on. Seems like ages since this corruption issue came out. Since then what we have seen are hearing, orders for demolition, and orders for stay on demolition. I mean it never seems to reache to conclusion.
How many of you agree with me that, when you hear some strict judgement passed by HC, you know it will be stayed by SC? When you hear some big shot has been jailed (after years of courtroom lingering), you know that he will be out on bail next day? The process have gotten so repetitive and convoluted, it stinks. How many of you have no faith left in the time bound justice?
I for one am very much pessimistic about this. I don’t blame the judiciary per say. They are bound by the infrastructure and number of judges available. But such a mockery has taken away faith from the justice system. And it does not augur well for a nation.
I think majority of issues in the country would go away if we fix judiciary. Make the justice system fair and fast. Imagine you can get a hearing within week and next date, the very next day. From Lower court to High court to Supreme Court- all within a month. Over. Imagine you never have to wait for Dates. Will you see so much corruption and crime? Majority of issues India faces today can be linked to corruption, which I think follows directly from excruciatingly slow judiciary.
With all the judicial activism I see, it’s time for judiciary to act tough and pass a judgement on “right to swift justice” to all. Order (and not ask) Govt. to create more courts and induct more judges. If Govt. is not doing, take suo moto, create a panel of retired judges and do it yourself. When you can do it in the case of BCCI, why can’t you do it when it comes to swift justice?
I know it’s too much to ask of the judiciary, but what has been done in case of President’s rule in Arunachal and Uttrakhand; What has been done in BCCI case; these are landmark judgements. They go beyond what judiciary could have done say 10-15 years back. I say notch it up a little and go for the kill. Take suo moto and force Govt. provide “swift justice for all”. You have all the tricks up the sleeve. Attach it to one of the Fundamental rights or whatever. I beg of you, just do it!
Useless Napping debate
Let’s agree on one thing, it’s not just the media, we all like controversies. Media likes it earn money, we like it for discussion and time pass. What else can explain why we have been discussing “Rahul Gandhi Napping” for last few days, when there are other pressing matters at hand.
I condemn people who create and propagate such worthless controversies. And paid accounts that flood social media with such bull crap. This takes away from the real issues and move towards absurdity. While we should be holding Rahul Gandhi accountable for the plight of Amethi or the disintegration of Congress party, we are stuck with this silly debate. That too a spilt mode pic.
Each and every politician will have a similar split second picture where he or she looks napping. Maybe he is, maybe he is not. The point is that discussion itself is useless. Mere slander. Also it takes the lime light away from serious and real issues.
I did a simple google and found out the collection of similar pics for the many leaders across party lines. Maybe they were napping. Or were just deeply in thought. Who cares. We should debate serious issues and leave the Parliament aside with such trivialities.
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