ArpitGarg's Weblog

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Posts Tagged ‘wrong

Donald Trump: Why pollsters got it wrong

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poll_wrong.jpgPolling (just like risk calculation in businesses) is as much a mathematical calculation as it is an art. You need to have the sense that few have to get it right. In last 10 years or so, it has become more of mathematical model than anytime before. Just like the 2007-09 financial crisis which brought to fore risk calculation model errors, similarly the current election result has brought to notice the polling model errors.

Trump campaign used to attack polls as fake and political hit jobs regularly. For my analysis I want to assume the intentions behind polls were pure. So why did they get it so wrong, barring a couple of polls (which can be owed to chance). I believe the polls had severe model errors, which didn’t took into account a lot of factors.

Just like 2007-09 when polls failed to take into account correlation risk across geographies, the polls failed to take into account the anger among the electorate. Also Trump was a new phenomenon, who was not someone one would like to say one likes, but was bang on message and policies. That created shy voters who did not admit to pollsters they were voting for Trump.

Polls also failed to take into account the contempt the main stream media had for Trump. So much so that anyone saying he/she supported Trump was bashed not just on social media but by mainstream media pundits too for being a bigot. I remember one of the Kardashians had to roll back on her comment of voting for Trump after the backlash. Would she have voted for Clinton? I very much doubt so. When bashing of a candidate becomes an acceptable thing and anyone supporting him is touted as a bad person by responsible people in media, it becomes difficult for one to admit the support anymore.

The anger, the shyness gave rise to the errors in legacy polling methods.

What polls also failed to take into account was the contempt for the media. Gallup poll which has tracked trust in media for last 40 years or so, found the trust to be the lowest in 2016. Two-thirds don’t trust media. And that same distrusting media was out to get Trump in full force. Media distrust fueled Trump support.

All these factors have to be modeled into polling methodology in future. The change election with a flawed candidate with an appealing message, the anger in the populace, the creation of shy voters and the bias in the media were few of the factors that broke the polls this year.

Hope the pollsters learn from these errors and evolve for better.

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Written by arpitgarg

November 9, 2016 at 5:34 pm

Posted in Media, Political

Tagged with , , , , , ,

Why media got Trump prediction wrong?

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trump_media.jpgSince Trump started topping polls and started winning primaries, media pundits are having a hard time explaining why they got predictions so wrong. It’s not an easy thing to introspect about ones failures. Most in media are passing through the same phase. They are blaming Trump voters, calling them angry, bigots and every name under the sun. Few have admitted they were wrong in their analysis. Still they are not ready to admit as to why they went wrong. Let me do it for them.

They were wrong as they were not impartial. They were wrong as they analyzed from studios. They were wrong as they were disconnected from public. They were wrong as their fat paychecks plugged their ears from the pain of the common man. They were wrong as they had a secure job, nice house and were paid for by those in power. They were wrong as the media houses they worked for and swore allegiance to, are owned by same elites who own politicians via campaign funds. More importantly they were wrong as they reported what they wanted to be true, not what was indeed true.

When polls started coming late last year, many in media knew that Trump had a solid chance. But they wrote otherwise. They wrote what they wished to be true. They wished Trump was not the nominee. Had they done unbiased analysis, they would have known the Truth, which was so evident.

Most of the Pundits are paid for by big business houses. Anything coming out of their mouths is thus tainted. They never say what they feel, they say what pays. Hence the disconnect.

Whether Trump will be a good nominee or a bad nominee, only time will tell. But to have said that he had no chance just coz they wanted him not to be a nominee, is where media went wrong. It’s time for biasness in media to go away or else people will force the exiting media to go away.

Written by arpitgarg

May 1, 2016 at 8:03 pm

Wrong v/s Anti-National

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antinationI think most of us are getting the issue wrong. People who are saying Govt. action is wrong and students at JNU and people in general have all the right to shout anti-national slogans, are missing the point here. There is a difference between being wrong and being anti-national. There is a difference between moral and legal right.

I agree God had given us every right to agree/disagree with whatever we want. No one can take that away from us. No one is saying people who shouted anti-national slogans are wrong or bad. They are people just like everyone else.

They are just being called anti-national. And people are confusing it as if they are being inhumans or bad people. No. To understand this, we have to understand the term anti-national. It means people who are against the nation. Now nation here is India. If you feel and act against India, you are anti-national. This does not means for everyone around the globe. An American or a Chinese will not be called anti-national if he/she shouts anti-India slogans. Only citizens of a nation.

India as a nation is itself quite new. It all began with princely states coming together under a single flag post 1947. In 1950 we as a nation agreed to be bound by a set of rules, we called Constitution. So if anyone goes against the nation, it is anti-national. They may be perfect human beings who don’t like the nation as it is. They might not agree with the Constitution as it is. Which is not morally wrong. But under the ambit of nation, it is anti-national.

Let’s dispel this confusion once and for all. Perfectly good human beings can be anti-national. We as a society have decided to put them behind bars. As they have the potential to destroy the nation as it is.

Maybe you agree with this. Maybe you don’t. If you disagree, you will have to wait till another revolution when you change the Constitution and burn down the nation. Within the ambit of the Constitution that we have, if you raise such anti-India rhetoric, you will be labeled anti-national. Better get in line and work for the betterment of the nation.

Supreme Court while granting bail to JNU student leader has made similar scathing remarks. When on one hand people die at border defending the nation, some people sitting in coziness are trying to destroy the nation. This cannot be justified.

Written by arpitgarg

March 3, 2016 at 9:55 pm

Posted in Political

Tagged with , ,

Mind Games

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I met a friend of mine today after a very long time. However we hit it off like yesterday. Now this friend is a person with extraordinarily high IQ. He is a genius but like with all of them he has a problem. He tends to micro analyse things.

He don’t know when to let go of things. He will keep thinking about incidents in his life from a factual perspective. You can’t find a fault in his analysis per say. But what he fails to understand is, we don’t need to do it always. If we have a quarrel with our brother, we should hug it off the next day. But his brain works differently. He will analyse the quarrel to find the root cause and in turn will never talk to his brother.

If you talk to him, you will be mighty impressed by his reasonings. They are theoretical and hence very difficult to be punctured. He will let himself suffer because his brain tells him he is right.

Such mindgames that he plays with himself, hurts no one but him. I hope with time he realizes that being happy is more important than the concept of right or wrong. Hope he loses with himself in these games of mind.

Written by arpitgarg

February 16, 2015 at 7:22 am

Posted in Real Incidents

Tagged with , , , ,

Of Cricket, Suresh, Sachin and Serbian

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Netizens woke up today to “Suresh Raina is God” updates on social networking websites. Apparently when “Suresh Raina is God” is translated to Serbian and back to English, Google Translate, gives us “Sachin Tendulkar is God”.  Sachin fans are going crazy ever since, reaffirming their faith in all what is Google.

Let me jot down in brief, what Google says, how Google Translate works.

Not Word By Work
It’s not a word by word translation. In the sense that “I am God” in Hindi does not translate to “मैं हूँ भगवान”, but Google Translate does it perfectly to, “मैं भगवान हूँ”.

Machine Guess Work
It’s all a guess work. Large amounts of documents already translated by human translators have been scanned. Google Translate analyses the patterns to find best suitable translation. Google calls it, “statistical machine translation”.

Correct the Mistakes
Google asks for your contribution to make Translate better. If you come across an anomaly, select the better alternative provided. This is fed back to the analyzer for future reference.

I did some investigation on my own keeping the above explainations in mind. Below are the results with my weird theories.

1. Cricket, Sachin, Suresh and Serbian

English Serbian English
Suresh Raina is God Суресх Раина је Бог Sachin Tendulkar is God
Suresh Raina is a match Fixer Суресх Раина је меч Фикер Sachin Tendulkar is a match Fixer
Suresh Raina is bowled out Суресх Раина се докотрљао се Sachin Tendulkar is bowled up
Suresh Raina is run out Суресх Раина је понестало Sachin Tendulkar was run out
Suresh Raina is playing cricket Sachin Tendulkar Суресх Раина игра крикет са Сацхин Тендулкар Sachin Tendulkar playing cricket with Sachin Tendulkar

If we associate Suresh Raina with cricket in any sense, Translate interprets it as Sachin Tendulkar as far as Serbian and English is concerned. If we recall, Suresh Raina was hailed by Wisden, Bible of Cricket, as one of the most promising lad when he first surfaced on the cricket arena. He was hailed as the next Sachin Tendulkar by cricket enthusiasts and pundits. Google Translate might be looking into those very reports for all we know. Also Suresh seems quite similar to Sachin even in English language.

2. Others are fine

English Serbian English
Virender Shewag is God Вирендер Схеваг је Бог Virender Shevag God
Sourav Ganguly is God Соурав Гангули је Бог Sourav Ganguli God
Rahul Dravid is God Рахул Дравид је Бог Rahul Dravid is God
Mahendra Singh Dhoni is God Махендра Сингх Дхони је Бог Mahendra Singh Dhoni is God

With other cricketers there seems to be no goofiness at all. I was expecting some trick with Virender Sehwag given that he has been hailed as duplicate Sachin. Alas! I was wrong.

3. No Cricket, No Confusion

English Serbian English
Suresh Raina Суресх Раина Suresh Raina
Suresh Raina is a doctor Суресх Раина је лекар Suresh Raina is a doctor
Suresh Raina eat Суресх Раина једу Suresh Raina eat
I met Suresh Raina Сам упознао Раина Суресх I met Suresh Raina
Suresh Raina met Sachin Tendulkar Суресх Раина састао Сацхин Тендулкар Suresh Raina met Sachin Tendulkar

If we use Suresh Raina, independent of any cricketing context, there is no funny business at all. Raina will not be able to catch up with Sachin in his off field life it seems.

4. Another of Google’s Prank

It might have been hardcoded by Google as a prank on cricket crazy net users in India. They are well known for such jokes. If it is a ploy, it sure is working. Wait for a press release, they will admit soon, if there is anything to it.

Google Translate has a lot many tricks up its sleeve. Keep exploring. Coz that’s what Jesus (Google) wants us to do. One of them being:

English Vietnamese English
Will Justin Bieber ever hit puberty Justin Bieber sẽ bao giờ đến tuổi dậy thì Justin will never reach puberty

Now that’s nasty of Google. What has Justin done to anyone?

Media: right or WRONG

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Last week a leading news channel was seen patting its back. It carried out an operation in Delhi. A female reporter walked on the road alone during the night to catch the person/persons who tried to take advantage of her.

One must say that this was a clear master stoke. However there seems to be a flaw. It served no positive purpose other than to add to the TRP of the news channel. On the hindsight it did some harm.

Firstly, let me go into as to why nothing positive came out of it. “Are the women safe at night?” is one such question as, “Is cigarette smoking not injurious to health”. Come’ on all of us know that answer to both the questions is a stern NO. What the channel tried to do by proving a well known fact, is far from my understanding. In fact a few days ago, even the Delhi CM agreed that roads are not safe for the females at night. Had the issue been “how this should be resolved”, channel should have been patted. It would have helped creating a better environment. But I guess, it’s easier to be a part of the problem than to be of the solution.

Secondly, why it did some harm? Consider the scenario that the car of a lady broke down at night. Now would anyone stop to help her? I think not. He would be more worried that if the lady turns out to be a reporter in disguise, he would be shown on television as a beast trying to take advantage of a stranded girl. This number would be much higher than the number of real criminals who would turn away due to the fear of being exposed. So in effect it would do more harm than good.

Written by arpitgarg

October 13, 2008 at 12:58 pm

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