AAP goes the BJP way: Destination for Party Changers
Those who follow elections closely would remember, in 2014, when BJP was riding high on Modi wave, it was perfect destination for people who wanted to change their party. From Disgruntled, sidelined people to those who saw pegging back on Modi wave was a winner, hopped on to the BJP train. BJP too accepted them with open arms. Some inductions were controversial, others less controversial. From Congress to AAP to JDU everyone was welcomed. It was in fact necessary as BJP, having not won elections for so long faced a dearth of faces. This was addressed by inductions from other parties.
The same trend I see for 2017 Punjab elections. Siddhu is the biggest catch. Names of Congress leaders are also coming up. It’s free for all. Again as party it is necessary as there are no faces, no leadership for AAP in Punjab other than Bhagwant Mann. Hence AAP seems to be going the BJP way. However Kejriwal hates Modi, this is one thing he has learnt from him fairly quickly.
I feel these inductions will help AAP, which is riding on a huge anti-incumbency wave. But AAP has to be careful while letting people in. IT has to have a food proof vetting process. One wrong move can harm bad. More than a face for CM’s post, AAP would need faces for MLA’s. This would be the biggest challenge. I assume a lot of people from other parties will contest on AAP ticket. This makes vetting process even more necessary.
Hope the good sense prevails.
Why are US Elections Polls numbers so varied?
A quick look at Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll page will show you that poll numbers between Trump and Clinton are hugely different on various opinion polls. They vary from +12 in favor of Clinton to +7 in favor of Trump. RCP uses few latest polls and takes their average to give a number. But the question is why so much difference? There are a few reasons as per what I understand.
- Who are People polled: Most important is the demographic of the respondents. Votes can be broadly divided into registered Democrats, registered Republicans and Independents. Registered Democrats are more likely to vote for Clinton while Registered Republicans are more likely to vote for Trump. If majority of voters polled are Democrats then results will be skewed in favor of Democrat candidate and same goes for Republicans. Hence pollsters divide the voters polled evenly between Democrat and Republican to get a clearer picture. How much ratio a pollster keeps, decides the poll number. Some use actual/exit-poll data from last election to decide on this ratio. Some predict the ratio on basis of the current mood of the public. For example in 2008 Democrat turnout was huge due to Obama wave which was different than in 2004. Different polls keep different ratio of Democrats/Republicans and hence different number.
- LV/RV: Likely Voters v/s Registered Voters. Some pollsters poll RV, some poll LV. Registered voters are the ones registered to vote. LV’s are the ones that are likely to vote in the election out of the Registered Voters. This LV formula differs among pollsters, causing the differences. Likely can again be based on party affiliation, age, ethnic background among other things.
- Political Leaning of Pollster: This is one if the major factors believe it or not. Pollsters themselves have their own political leanings. They tend to be biased. More so in a polarized environment. They think they can sway the public opinion especially in the early polls.
- Quid pro quo: In today’s world reputation is the last thing that gets you money. Some quid pro quo with one side or the other, goes a long way in the practical world and hence the discrepancy.
Why US Elections make me sad: And no it’s not about Trump
Elections in world’s oldest democracy and the leader of the free world should have been about all that is good about Democracy. It should have been a showcase to world which can influence non-Democracies to become one. However I am afraid to say US elections make me sad. I’ll tell you why.
The debate should have been about the candidates, the policies, what they can do or not. However I see the media discourse about who is raising how much money. Money, which should have been abhorrent when associated with a candidate, is being considered a virtue. The liberal media is celebrating the candidate who gets more money out of the wealthy donors, the Oligarchs.
Consider the headline on CNN, “Clinton burying Trump: $42 million to $1.3 million”. It reeks of a feeling that a candidate with more money is more virtuous. And this makes me real sad. It feels the real purpose of democracy has gone lost. Each person, rich or poor, was to have equal say. However a donation by rich, which is then used to influence other voters, makes the voice skewed. Rich has more voice even in elections. I am sure if Trump had raised more money, the headlines would have been is his favor. It’s not just CNN, its all media. In fact it’s a general sense.
Whole concept of democracy has become a sham. In the world’s largest democracy, India, it is even a bigger sham. Billions of dollars of black money is spent during General elections. It’s akin to buying votes.
So much money in politics and its naked celebration by media makes me sick. Makes me wonder, where did it all go wrong?
Kashmir Violence: Solutions Please
Kashmir Violence has once again shaken the Valley. This time the agitators have rallied around the killing of a terrorist by Security forces. Each time it looks like peace has finally dawned on Valley, each time the mirror gets shattered. Along with stone pelting, this time there have been attacks on security establishments. National media has also made situation worse. No one is interested in finding a solution. Everyone just wants to pin blame.
Someone has to intervene, somethings gotta give. There are broadly four types of violators in Kashmir. 1st are the terrorists who are trained across the border, 2nd are the terrorists like Burhan Wani, born and trained in Kashmir, 3rd are the rich separatists like Hurriyat who are happy with leading a limited sect of people as long as their riches are preserved, 4th are the poor Kashmirs who come out in streets and pelt stones. There were reports recently that some of these un-employed youth were being paid to pelt stones.
Let’s first accept that some of the stone pelters have genuine issues. Then only we will be able to find a solution. Demonizing them won’t lead to a solution. I haven’t come across a single person who is ready to address this issue. There can be a multiple reasons for stone pelting and agitation. 1st can be as I mentioned getting paid for this, 2nd can be they have lost someone due to security forces, 3rd can be they want Kashmir to be independent or go to Pak. Once we make the list of such issues, we can address them.
For the un-employed youth, the Govt. of Kashmir has to create jobs. There jobs can be skilled/unskilled. As they say idle mind is devil’s playground, youth has to be kept busy. MNREGA could be extended further than 100 days. Govt. cans set up small scale industries across state. People should not be left dependent on Tourism to earn money. Pump in money and get some work done out of the idle youth. Some out of the box solutions would be required. But I am sure the money that would be saved in security would be more than money spent to create jobs.
For the people who have lost someone due to Security Forces, there is no easy fix. If it doesn’t stop now, the cycle will continue. More agitation will lead to more death which in turn will lead to more agitation. Same goes for people who don’t see merit of Kashmir being with India. Both these categories of people need to see the benefits of being with India. And the responsibility lies with those people of Kashmir who are reaping the benefits of India. Kashmiris who have been studying in colleges across India, Kashmiris who have been working in companies across India, and Kashmiris who are making a living across India have to come out in open. They have to raise their voices higher than the agitators. They have to make people living in Kashmir realize what India has given/can give them.
Unless the people of Kashmir who have benefitted from India come out in open, it’s next to impossible to fix the problem. The doctors/engineers/collectors who have originated from Kashmir should inspire their brethren to be with India. Disillusioned people will not listen to a Delhite or a Mumbaikar; they would listen to a fellow Kashmiri. Onus lies on you.
The wrong role models
Bollywood actresses, top women sportsmen are often considered as ideal women roll models. They are celebrated in media and is projected that young girls want to be like them. This media thrusted roll models are all wrong. Even for men, how can a Shahrukh/Salman be a role model? They can be a model in some AD shoot but role?
This has distorted the priorities of entire generations. Guys putting on fake raybans in ‘tashan’ and girls pouting and putting on ‘laali’. A poor woman who works hard, educates her children and who then pulls their family out of poverty is my role model. A man born in poverty and toiled hard, now sipping tea from the balcony of his own home is my role model. Such people made difference due to their hard work. A role model should be one whose example millions can follow. Not like Cricketers. Hardly 1000 cricketers (that too after IPL) prosper, rest all have nothing. Hence I don’t consider Sachin or Sania as role model. I like role model whose example, millions can follow and succeed.
I consider participants of Special Olympics as role models. Millions who are handicap can take courage from them. Not for sports but getting back up in life. How can a Kareena, Sonam, Sonakshi, Kajol be role models? In fact they distort the definition of feminism. Feminism is not about wearing skimpy clothes or putting on makeup, or living single. Feminism is when girls make difference to society. A Kiran Bedi success is feminism for me. Millions of women went to school taking spirit from her.
I have no issues with what these fashionistas do in their life. But when they are celebrates as role models for women, I have an issue.
Also I take issue when dynastic breeds are regarded role models. A Mayawati is a role model for me. A Sonia Gandhi is not. Mayawati inspired millions of Dalit women to fight for their rights. She gave millions of Dalit’s self respect.
Maybe this distorted world deserves such distorted role models. Who the hell knows!
Nice Guy gets Bullied
With the horrific pictures of Nice attack coming in, world has once again been left in disbelief. France has been the quintessential Romantic destination for the whole world, and thus this attack has impacted a lot of people across the world.
Please forgive my insensitivity but I recall a seen from a TV Series Southpark where a character bulldozes the crowd in a similar manner. If was funny when I watched it. It is funny no more. I feel the horror. Imagine walking down the street in celebration and next moment someone comes from behind and crushes you. What will it all achieve, I ask? Other than global destruction!
The misguided and brain washed youth carrying out such lone wolf attacks. What can be more defeating to the society? First Bangladesh and Now this; the well bred, well fed people showing such hatred against society is beyond understanding. How can the world move ahead from here? Such lone wolf attacks are devoid of any intelligence input. There are no terror camps, no formal training. All that is there is TV and internet. It’s like self radicalization. The challenge is unprecedented. One fine day, anyone can pick up a knife and kill me on the street. Even authorities can’t do anything.
Though abhorrent, I can at least understand some rationale (or ir-rationale) behind, if someone from Iraq or Afganistan fights to avenge some loss. But what have these misguided youth in Bangladesh and now Nice have lost to avenge? It’s like a chip which is being implanted in their brain. Inception of the worst kind. Today they kill as they feel one with the terrorists in name of religion, tomorrow they can feel the same in the name of caste, creed, color. Where and How will this stop?
Top political, military and diplomatic minds are burning the midnight oil to solve this very riddle. Hope they get some solution sooner than later. I am afraid to think otherwise.
South China Sea issue: What will India do
We have an unprecedented global situation at hand. A UN backed tribunal has ruled against China’s rights over South China Sea. I call it unprecedented as China does not seem to be backing down and there seems to be no global power who overrules China. I call it unprecedented as unlike before US seems to be in no position to play Big Brother. I call it unprecedented as it seems to the pivotal moment in Asian history which just might crown China as the Asian leader.
What I make of it is China will not back down and Obama lacks political wherewithal to make China back down. World Order that we have seen since India’s Independence is about to change. There is no Papa of the world to run. I call it destruction of the singularity and entering into the plurality. US lead position is in danger and with it India’s security and foreign policy.
India has been backed by US to take on China. China being Pakistan’s all weather friends. What should India do now? India lacks global power to openly defy China. Also to become part of anti-China group will not bide well given that clout of any such group is itself in question. Pak will be brimming that is for sure.
I feel India will be a silent spectator on this. It will give a silent approval to China’s authority and in return bargain for NSG and UNSC support from China. This I feel Modi is most likely to do and this I feel is the best of the situation India can make.
I guess China also knows this at some level hence it has been holding out on India for NSG and UNSC bids. Now I feel is the best time for India to go for the kill and win some back room bargaining. It’s always good to make best of the obvious ending. Sense the result and back the “to be winner”.
Why Modi should take Arunachal Verdict Seriously
First Uttarakhand and now Arunachal; Supreme Court has set aside President’s Rule in these two states. This is a big blow to the credibility of the Central Government. Given the polarized political times we live in, I don’t think this will hurt the popular Govt much. More so, when we have supporters ready to justify anything and everything without merit. But as for the legacy of this Govt., this is real bad.
The pattern by which the President’s Rule was imposed was similar in both states. Ruling parties MLA’s rebellion followed by speaker taking action followed by dismissal of the Govt by Center. Both places Court ruled in favor of the erstwhile State Govt. Both places had Congress Govt. Modi is doing some good work, but criticism should be done where due. Even the ardent supporters of BJP should take note and should question this misuse of power.
This goes against federalism. Earlier Courts were subservient to the Govt and were wary to rule on such things. But after the dark days of Emergency, Courts have learnt and Collegium system has helped them to become more independent than any other country.
Setting aside the President’s Rule in Arunachal is another historic verdict after Uttarakhand. This is one of those landmark judgements which will act as deterrent to such proclivities in future. It to have happened under Modi feels bad. He has to preempt such negatives, given that his detractors regard him as autocratic and dictatorial. It gives them another weapon to attack him, and rightly so.
This would also strain good relations between President and Central Govt. Pranab Mukherjee would not like seeing his name being sullen in the annals of history. What was the political need for such hara-kiri by BJP? It takes away a lot from the good work being done. Hopefully there is some course correction done.
Animal Eating society agitated on Dog Attack. I mean really?
A couple of days back, a video went viral where a dog was flung off the building by a sick mind. To harm an innocent animal is not a good thing. But what I saw after, made me question my own sanity.
There was a hue and cry and call for the culprits to be arrested and put behind bars. Like always, media gave it airtime and discussed at length with experts. What amazed me was, the very same reporters who wanted the animal (Cow) be allowed to be killed and people be allowed to eat it, were the same people who were disgusted by dog brutality.
Maybe I am real dumb as I fail to understand how a society which kills and eats animals can raise such a hue and cry. Killing and eating is ok, but beating up is not? If this is not hypocrisy what is. I am not justifying the attack on the dog, it was wrong. But what I am against is the animal eating society talking high moral ground and singling out the culprits.
It is these dual standards that confound me and question my own sanity. How can the society as a whole be such hypocrite, maybe it’s just me who is insane. So if I throw a goat off the building, will it be criminal too? Or Hen for that matter? Or cat or mouse? And if I kill them and eat them, will the criminality go away. Is there some restricted list or while list?
I feel society of killers and animal eaters is trying to quench the morality by singling out few people. And I fail to understand this.
On Mallya’s friends: Suhel Seth and Harsha Bhogle
You might know Suhel Seth and Harsha Bhogle. I chose these two people coz first one is a self-proclaimed holier than thou and authority on calling out other people and second one has been playing victim card and has been hailed as a nice poor guy.
It amazes me how ‘scratch the back’ and ‘self-sustaining’ club these people have made within elite and media circles, that nobody is calling them out for what they are. They are aiders and abettors to the crony capitalism. In fact they are product of this very corrupt system that they seem to portray they are not part of.
First let’s come to Suhel Seth. He comes on TV debates and fakes authority on social and political issues. He gives gyan and lectures people how they should behave. He is a socialite and metro elite. Recently there was a controversy in London when Mallya attended the same event as Indian High Commissioner. You know what that event was? That was the Suhel Seth’s book launch. People like Seth who are in bed with people like Mallya, then come on TV and lecture others. What is sickening is they are allowed to let away due to the quid pro quo group they have created.
Next is the Harsha Bhogle, the nice guy. He played victim for being kicked out of commentary contract. First of all that was a temporary contract. Second he wouldn’t have got the contract renewed for so long had he not been part of the cozy club himself. He reaped the benefits of quid pro quo for so long and when he was at receiving end, he played victim and his friends carried that charade along. Anyways remember that video that went viral which Mallya’s son made in London, wishing RCB all the best for IPL final. There was guy sitting with Mallya in that video, you can hear Mallya junior calling out Bhogle’s name in that video. And then Harsha Bhogle is hailed as the poor victim. Really!
The least we can do is not hail these people and show them their real place. Else they keep exploiting the system and keep preaching us how not to do it.
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