ArpitGarg's Weblog

An opinion of the world around me

In Modi Era: What can opposition parties do?

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modi_opposition.jpgI was not born to witness the Nehru/Indira era when Congress got votes regardless of the performance. For good or for bad, I can’t say, but am seeing something similar with Modi. He is single handedly winning elections from Panchayat to Parliament. Opposition stands decimated. Barring a couple of states (that too don’t seem far off now), Modi wave has engulfed the entire country. Where does this leave the opposition parties?

At this moment, the national and to a large extent regional parties too are in disarray. I highly doubt that even a Bihar like alliance would even be able to save them. In my opinion, opposition should acknowledge that it’s Modi era and whatever they say/do; no one is ready to listen. You might recall Sharukh’s era from 1995-2010, when only Shahrukh’s movies were a hit and rest all came distant second. We are in a similar situation now.

If BJP wins MCD elections in Delhi, which I am highly confident they will, then opposition has no standing in electoral politics at least till 2024. If Modi can salvage BJP from the corrupt MCD rule of last 10 years then nothing can stop BJP from winning anywhere else. People trust him, simple.

Opposition parties should go back to their basics and work out a long term plan. They should take a leaf out of Nitish Kumar’s book and create a development image for themselves. They need something as radical as Sharab-bandi to fight Modi. It will be an image war. Freebies won’t do the trick now. They have to make their intent clear.

Opposition should stop electoral ambitions for next 5-7 years. Only then it can redeem itself. Trying to appease certain segments with freebies (as against sustainable development) won’t help in Modi era. He has combined majority politics with development plank and there is no stopping.
Go back to grass root. Get involved in social service, which was your primary aim.

Raise the issues of common man. And hope that Modi falters. I am afraid there is nothing more you can do.

Written by arpitgarg

April 22, 2017 at 1:53 am

Posted in Political

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Pakistan annexing PoK (Gilgit Baltistan): A win for India

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modi_nawaz.jpgYou would have read this news last week; Pakistan is all set to declare PoK (Gilgit Baltistan) as its fifth province. Contrary to the popular belief, it’s a win for India. It’s a part of shrewd mind-game that Modi diplomats have been playing on China. Let me explain why.

History: Why was it not made Pakistan province till today?
The answer lies in Pakistan agenda of Kashmir Azaadi. PoK was kept as a separate entity so Pakistan can blame as to how India has occupied Kashmir while they have kept their side of Kashmir Azaad. There was no other reason.

Why Pakistan action now after so many years?
It’s under duress. CPEC (China Pak Economic Corridor) is passing through PoK. India stressed upon China that since PoK is not Pakistan territory officially and since India considers it as our integral part, any aggression by India and resulting destruction of CPEC, should not be considered aggression against China. After all PoK was Azaad and not part of any sovereign nation. Worried China stressed upon Pak to annex PoK officially, which is what Pakistan has done now. It’s all about money.

What India Gains?
This was the only practical solution to Kashmir issue. Since PoK will now officially be a part of Pak, Pak can’t misguide Kashmiri youth anymore that Indian side of Kashmir is under seize while their side of Kashmir is Azaad. It is a huge psychological strike by India. Pakistan was forced to show its true colors and has lost all grounds to criticize India and has also lost any credibility in the eyes of militants. It’s early days yet but a great step towards normalcy.

Written by arpitgarg

March 16, 2017 at 6:19 pm

Posted in Political, Real Incidents

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How Kejriwal lost the plot

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kejriwal3.jpgI wrote about it earlier how Kejriwal got the tide wrong. He fought against Modi head-on who was riding the wave of great public support. As Kejriwal fought with Modi, he kept losing support; hence his fate in 2017.

Last 2 years or so, he has continued his tirade. As I mentioned earlier, people get tired of prolonged drama. Even if BJP was not letting him work in Delhi, continuous cries don’t work. People get fed up. Either find a way or quit. He has all the right to badmouth Modi, but given the support that Modi commands today, it’s a self-goal. AAP came out as an immature party, with no dent to Modi popularity.

He could have made a mark in Punjab, but got the calculations wrong. You don’t berate a popular leader, without repercussions. He should have fought against Badals and Congress, whom public dislikes and should have left Modi alone. Demonetization was another thing he miscalculated. He was the most vocal against the move and look where it got him. He should have highlighted the fumbled implementation rather than the intent of Modi. Voters like strong and decisive leaders, not cry-babies. Have you ever seen Modi cry about lack of Rajya Sabha support? He let people around him do that but he himself gives a vibe of not caring and finding a work around.

Hope Kejriwal and AAP learn their lesson. Modi is ‘once in a generation’ leader and nothing good with come out by fighting him directly. People supported you when you took on Jaitely and that’s the way to go. To outsmart Modi, you have to hurt his cronies. People love Modi but not so much people around him.

It’s still early days for Arvind and his party and hope they come stronger out of this. Congress has ceded the space of principal opposition party and for a healthy democracy we need a strong opposition leader. If you continue acting immature, people will find some other strong leader. Long live democracy!

Written by arpitgarg

March 13, 2017 at 4:51 pm

Posted in Political

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Triple Talaq: BJP’s Mandal Move?

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triple_talaq.jpgLate 80’s and Early 90’s saw the Kamandal vs Mandal politics. With BJP able to consolidate Hindu votes with Mandir politics, other parties hit back with Aarakshan, driving a wedge in the consolidated Hindu vote. Last 25 years have seen voting along those lines, with Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati being the biggest regional gainers with their respective caste bases.

Outcome of UP 2017 elections has shocked everyone. How to make sense of the results? The result goes beyond polarization. Unless Muslims have voted for BJP in decent numbers, the results don’t make any sense. And that is why I call Triple Talaq as BJP’s Mandal move. Muslims have always been distant to BJP and have good reasons for that. Like others, I too have been of the opinion that BJP will never be able to woo Muslims.

But the master stroke of Triple Talaq and Muslim women’s rights, has driven a similar wedge among the Muslim voters. Muslim women voting for BJP can explain the mystery results of UP election. There will be a lot of dissection in the months to follow; such is the enormity of the outcome.

Politics aside, women rights needs to be protected. I believe that support for eradicating inhuman practices like dowry or triple talaq has to come from within the community. If Muslim women have voted for BJP in good numbers, it should be considered their silent revolt against the practice and an open discussion must follow.

Written by arpitgarg

March 13, 2017 at 1:54 am

UP results: Morality of Nation Vindicated

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modi_up.jpgI wrote about a day after Nov 8, how demonetization was a political master stroke from Modi and will increase his political capital. UP election has proved this and how. What makes me happier is that the morality of the nation has been vindicated. Let me explain what I mean.

The political parties who went to public against demonetization were banking on the immorality and corruption quotient of the citizens. I remember a joke from standup comedian Sunil Pal. He was playing a corrupt politician and was sure to win banking on the fact that 90% of us are corrupt and thus would choose someone who reflected their corruption. Same was the strategy of the major opposition parties, who missed the pulse of the nation. Nitish Kumar got it right and came out of the current cycle with his reputation intact.

Although literacy rate is not improving as fast we would have liked, but what we don’t realize is, a lot of officially illiterate people have access to smart phones and are becoming self-literate. They have easy access to what is happening in the country and abroad. This is unlike in the past when the information flow was limited only to big cities and privileged few. Today’s Rural India is as politically aware as Urban India and can appreciate an honest effort. It shows in the election results.

The onus is on Modi and BJP to realize the dream of 20 crore UP people. They can start by reforming police stations and restore the rule of law. Using his goodwill, Modi should attract industries and investment to the state which has been limited to Noida region only.

Politics is a cycle and we don’t know what holds 5 years down the line, but one thing people of UP have affirmed is, they are in a hurry. Modi would be aware of this and should be ready to play 20-20 and not a Test Match.

Written by arpitgarg

March 12, 2017 at 11:31 pm

Posted in Political

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What happened was unfortunate, But Why demonize US?

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india_us.jpgIt’s a matter of sadness that an Indian techie was shot dead in Kansas US, but what I have been seeing of late is a lesson in morality being taught to America by the whole world. Frankly I don’t understand why? First of all the countries which are teaching it, should look at their own minority rights history before pointing fingers.

What is not being highlighted in media is the outpouring of support across US for the techie and his family. Americans have donated whole heartedly for the families’ welfare fund. As I see, American people has been more than welcoming to the immigrants from this side of the world, more than any other country. And what we are doing after a few unfortunate incidents is to demonize them.

For our country where even today, dowry killing and honor killings are rampant, it’s quite rich to preach. Preach to a country which has always welcomed immigrants from all parts of the world.

I would suggest Indian immigrants in US, instead of sending money back to India and buying properties left right and center here, invest in the future of country of your work. Come together and create employments there. Don’t alienate the people there by secluding yourself. Embrace the culture and the society.

Most important of all, consider yourself one of them.

Written by arpitgarg

March 4, 2017 at 10:19 pm

Posted in General/Society

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UP election 2017: Which side will the camel sit?

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up_election_2017.jpgUP election 2017 is a riddle which no political pundit wants to touch. This is unlike last 2 elections where BSP and SP were predicted to win respectively. Unlike the regular issues of caste and vikaas, demonetization (pro and against), hangover of successful religious polarization in 2014 general election, the Yadav family feud and Congress-SP alliance have muddled the already murky waters.

BSP was the clear favorite over BJP on ground, until SP-Congress alliance materialized and it makes more difference than some understand. Who will this alliance hurt more and can it turn into a winner by itself is a million dollar question. Depending on which channel you tune in to, predictions range from SP-Congress, BJP, BSP and hung assembly.

No political pundit (or political hack as some call them), is ready to put his/her reputation on the line by choosing a side before the count is done. I expect even the exit polls (when they come out) to be divided too.

The biggest setback of all time, BJP in 2014, is a major factor why predictors are wary. Also no one knows the effect of demonetization in rural areas. People want to say SP-Congress but they are afraid of Amit Shah the wizard. Alliance has relegated BSP to a second choice and spoilt their Muslim-Dalit strategy as against Muslim-Yadav-‘Leftover Congressi’ combine.

BJP has ceded a lot of political mileage since 2014, when Modi asked for votes on state election issues. With no substantial ‘acche din’ for people on ground, Akhilesh Yadav has been able to make BJP the incumbent party in the state. Instead of answering for last 5 years, he has been able to successfully question BJP about the good days promised. For BJP, just saying, ‘we didn’t have control on state issues’ might not be enough.

Early next month, results will come out and the riddle will stand solved all by itself. Till then, can you answer this billion dollar question? Which side will the camel sit?

Written by arpitgarg

February 23, 2017 at 1:21 am

Posted in Political

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