Archive for the ‘Political’ Category
AAP goes the BJP way: Destination for Party Changers
Those who follow elections closely would remember, in 2014, when BJP was riding high on Modi wave, it was perfect destination for people who wanted to change their party. From Disgruntled, sidelined people to those who saw pegging back on Modi wave was a winner, hopped on to the BJP train. BJP too accepted them with open arms. Some inductions were controversial, others less controversial. From Congress to AAP to JDU everyone was welcomed. It was in fact necessary as BJP, having not won elections for so long faced a dearth of faces. This was addressed by inductions from other parties.
The same trend I see for 2017 Punjab elections. Siddhu is the biggest catch. Names of Congress leaders are also coming up. It’s free for all. Again as party it is necessary as there are no faces, no leadership for AAP in Punjab other than Bhagwant Mann. Hence AAP seems to be going the BJP way. However Kejriwal hates Modi, this is one thing he has learnt from him fairly quickly.
I feel these inductions will help AAP, which is riding on a huge anti-incumbency wave. But AAP has to be careful while letting people in. IT has to have a food proof vetting process. One wrong move can harm bad. More than a face for CM’s post, AAP would need faces for MLA’s. This would be the biggest challenge. I assume a lot of people from other parties will contest on AAP ticket. This makes vetting process even more necessary.
Hope the good sense prevails.
Why are US Elections Polls numbers so varied?
A quick look at Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll page will show you that poll numbers between Trump and Clinton are hugely different on various opinion polls. They vary from +12 in favor of Clinton to +7 in favor of Trump. RCP uses few latest polls and takes their average to give a number. But the question is why so much difference? There are a few reasons as per what I understand.
- Who are People polled: Most important is the demographic of the respondents. Votes can be broadly divided into registered Democrats, registered Republicans and Independents. Registered Democrats are more likely to vote for Clinton while Registered Republicans are more likely to vote for Trump. If majority of voters polled are Democrats then results will be skewed in favor of Democrat candidate and same goes for Republicans. Hence pollsters divide the voters polled evenly between Democrat and Republican to get a clearer picture. How much ratio a pollster keeps, decides the poll number. Some use actual/exit-poll data from last election to decide on this ratio. Some predict the ratio on basis of the current mood of the public. For example in 2008 Democrat turnout was huge due to Obama wave which was different than in 2004. Different polls keep different ratio of Democrats/Republicans and hence different number.
- LV/RV: Likely Voters v/s Registered Voters. Some pollsters poll RV, some poll LV. Registered voters are the ones registered to vote. LV’s are the ones that are likely to vote in the election out of the Registered Voters. This LV formula differs among pollsters, causing the differences. Likely can again be based on party affiliation, age, ethnic background among other things.
- Political Leaning of Pollster: This is one if the major factors believe it or not. Pollsters themselves have their own political leanings. They tend to be biased. More so in a polarized environment. They think they can sway the public opinion especially in the early polls.
- Quid pro quo: In today’s world reputation is the last thing that gets you money. Some quid pro quo with one side or the other, goes a long way in the practical world and hence the discrepancy.
Why US Elections make me sad: And no it’s not about Trump
Elections in world’s oldest democracy and the leader of the free world should have been about all that is good about Democracy. It should have been a showcase to world which can influence non-Democracies to become one. However I am afraid to say US elections make me sad. I’ll tell you why.
The debate should have been about the candidates, the policies, what they can do or not. However I see the media discourse about who is raising how much money. Money, which should have been abhorrent when associated with a candidate, is being considered a virtue. The liberal media is celebrating the candidate who gets more money out of the wealthy donors, the Oligarchs.
Consider the headline on CNN, “Clinton burying Trump: $42 million to $1.3 million”. It reeks of a feeling that a candidate with more money is more virtuous. And this makes me real sad. It feels the real purpose of democracy has gone lost. Each person, rich or poor, was to have equal say. However a donation by rich, which is then used to influence other voters, makes the voice skewed. Rich has more voice even in elections. I am sure if Trump had raised more money, the headlines would have been is his favor. It’s not just CNN, its all media. In fact it’s a general sense.
Whole concept of democracy has become a sham. In the world’s largest democracy, India, it is even a bigger sham. Billions of dollars of black money is spent during General elections. It’s akin to buying votes.
So much money in politics and its naked celebration by media makes me sick. Makes me wonder, where did it all go wrong?
Nice Guy gets Bullied
With the horrific pictures of Nice attack coming in, world has once again been left in disbelief. France has been the quintessential Romantic destination for the whole world, and thus this attack has impacted a lot of people across the world.
Please forgive my insensitivity but I recall a seen from a TV Series Southpark where a character bulldozes the crowd in a similar manner. If was funny when I watched it. It is funny no more. I feel the horror. Imagine walking down the street in celebration and next moment someone comes from behind and crushes you. What will it all achieve, I ask? Other than global destruction!
The misguided and brain washed youth carrying out such lone wolf attacks. What can be more defeating to the society? First Bangladesh and Now this; the well bred, well fed people showing such hatred against society is beyond understanding. How can the world move ahead from here? Such lone wolf attacks are devoid of any intelligence input. There are no terror camps, no formal training. All that is there is TV and internet. It’s like self radicalization. The challenge is unprecedented. One fine day, anyone can pick up a knife and kill me on the street. Even authorities can’t do anything.
Though abhorrent, I can at least understand some rationale (or ir-rationale) behind, if someone from Iraq or Afganistan fights to avenge some loss. But what have these misguided youth in Bangladesh and now Nice have lost to avenge? It’s like a chip which is being implanted in their brain. Inception of the worst kind. Today they kill as they feel one with the terrorists in name of religion, tomorrow they can feel the same in the name of caste, creed, color. Where and How will this stop?
Top political, military and diplomatic minds are burning the midnight oil to solve this very riddle. Hope they get some solution sooner than later. I am afraid to think otherwise.
South China Sea issue: What will India do
We have an unprecedented global situation at hand. A UN backed tribunal has ruled against China’s rights over South China Sea. I call it unprecedented as China does not seem to be backing down and there seems to be no global power who overrules China. I call it unprecedented as unlike before US seems to be in no position to play Big Brother. I call it unprecedented as it seems to the pivotal moment in Asian history which just might crown China as the Asian leader.
What I make of it is China will not back down and Obama lacks political wherewithal to make China back down. World Order that we have seen since India’s Independence is about to change. There is no Papa of the world to run. I call it destruction of the singularity and entering into the plurality. US lead position is in danger and with it India’s security and foreign policy.
India has been backed by US to take on China. China being Pakistan’s all weather friends. What should India do now? India lacks global power to openly defy China. Also to become part of anti-China group will not bide well given that clout of any such group is itself in question. Pak will be brimming that is for sure.
I feel India will be a silent spectator on this. It will give a silent approval to China’s authority and in return bargain for NSG and UNSC support from China. This I feel Modi is most likely to do and this I feel is the best of the situation India can make.
I guess China also knows this at some level hence it has been holding out on India for NSG and UNSC bids. Now I feel is the best time for India to go for the kill and win some back room bargaining. It’s always good to make best of the obvious ending. Sense the result and back the “to be winner”.
Why Modi should take Arunachal Verdict Seriously
First Uttarakhand and now Arunachal; Supreme Court has set aside President’s Rule in these two states. This is a big blow to the credibility of the Central Government. Given the polarized political times we live in, I don’t think this will hurt the popular Govt much. More so, when we have supporters ready to justify anything and everything without merit. But as for the legacy of this Govt., this is real bad.
The pattern by which the President’s Rule was imposed was similar in both states. Ruling parties MLA’s rebellion followed by speaker taking action followed by dismissal of the Govt by Center. Both places Court ruled in favor of the erstwhile State Govt. Both places had Congress Govt. Modi is doing some good work, but criticism should be done where due. Even the ardent supporters of BJP should take note and should question this misuse of power.
This goes against federalism. Earlier Courts were subservient to the Govt and were wary to rule on such things. But after the dark days of Emergency, Courts have learnt and Collegium system has helped them to become more independent than any other country.
Setting aside the President’s Rule in Arunachal is another historic verdict after Uttarakhand. This is one of those landmark judgements which will act as deterrent to such proclivities in future. It to have happened under Modi feels bad. He has to preempt such negatives, given that his detractors regard him as autocratic and dictatorial. It gives them another weapon to attack him, and rightly so.
This would also strain good relations between President and Central Govt. Pranab Mukherjee would not like seeing his name being sullen in the annals of history. What was the political need for such hara-kiri by BJP? It takes away a lot from the good work being done. Hopefully there is some course correction done.
Kudos to Modi and Where Smriti Irani fumbled at HRD
First of all kudos to Modi and Amit Shah for the cabinet reshuffle. After a long time reshuffle has been performance based. Not able to resolve Rajya Sabha logjam lost Venkaiah his ministry. Falling into one controversy after another and not able to take people along lost Smriti Irani HRD. I never imagined such a performance based axing was possible in India.
None of the pundits predicted even after swearing in that Smriti or Naidu could be moved to different ministries. Now they have nothing to criticize. Policy criticism aside, I applaud PM when it’s due and this is one such case. It shows he has not lost track of the pulse. After 10 years of entitlement politics and policy paralysis, I never thought such preemptive actions were possible in Indian politics.
Coming to the big news; Smriti Irani being moved out of HRD. I agree that not all controversies were Irani’s creation. There were vested interests at play. But where she failed was to quell those controversies in a calm manner. She went confrontational. It could have worked in political fights, but confrontation with youth was never a good idea. She did what perhaps I would have done, fight it out. But with HRD minister, there were different expectations. She should have played smart. Should have gone about making changes without herself getting in confrontational mode. She should have let her surrogates and proxies do the fighting.
Second was the women card. She played it a bit too far. She aped Kejriwal in that regard. It is correct that she was targeted by elites for her acting background, just like BJP has crippled Delhi Govt for last year. But playing victim can only go so far. After a while it shows lack of maturity and inability to handle things. With “Dear” thing she went a bit too far.
She has done some good things at HRD but failed to build her legacy. She has age on her side and with time she will learn how to act smart and take people along. I firmly believe that she has a bright future ahead. Her oratory skills, a key in politics, are next to none. When media talk about her being contender to entitled Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, I just laugh. I believe Rahul Gandhi will be the one who will have to fight it out in 2019 against Irani.
How Manmohan Singh tainted his own legacy
Growing up in late 90’s and early 2000’s, I came to know about Manmohan Singh. Everyone talked about him with respect as the man who liberalized India’s economy. How he helped the nation out of a potential bankruptcy by his economic vision.
Then came 2004 and I saw Manmohan Singh accompanying Sonia Gandhi to meet the President to stake claim to form the Govt. Few days later, I saw Sonia Gandhi accompanying Manmohan, who became an unelected PM. Then came the swearing in ceremony, I saw a humble man who was thankful to Sonia Gandhi more than to the nation. It was understandable, as nation didn’t choose him, Sonia did.
UPA 1 went without major hiccups. Nuclear Deal was the first time people saw Manmohan’s political acumen. And he was rewarded by public with a second term. Though he did not choose to stand for election this time too. Amidst this, UPA 2 began and all hell broke loose. The scams of UPA 1 tumbled out one by one and Manmohan Singh cut a sorry figure. It was not his cabinet but UPA cabinet. He didn’t appoint the ministers; he himself was appointed.
The desire he had to stick to his chair (I can’t blame him completely, who wouldn’t want to remain PM of India), did him in. From the golden legacy, he became the PM of one of the most corrupt Govt. ever in India. His decision to remain silent was not his decision, it was his compulsion else he would have been thrown out from PM chair. He chose to remain in the chair. I agree that he didn’t make money out of it, but he catered to his ambition to remain as PM. This was his corruption. He sold his soul and shielded his corrupt cabinet.
When he said, “Compulsions of coalition politics”, he would have hoped to divert blame to the coalition partners. But he was himself the biggest culprit. It was not due to compulsions of coalition politics, he was being blamed due to his own greed for the PM chair. The devil in him was compelling him to continue to turn a blind eye to corruption and stick to the chair.
Who started out during my childhood as a man who liberalized India, ended up being head of the most corrupt Govt and a morally bruised soul. How the might fall!
What Kejriwal is doing wrong and Modi is doing right
Yesterday I was reading writeups by two of my friends on ‘Describe yourself’ and suddenly it came to me. The difference between Modi and Kejriwal. What Modi is doing right and Kejriwal is doing wrong.
The difference is showing level of maturity. I have long stopped believing that politicians do/say things because of ideologies. I believe that every politician do/say things what he/she think will look better to the electorate. This is what Modi, Kejriwal or for that matter any politician does. And I don’t have any issues with that.
Modi is PM now and has control of Central Govt. What he says today is different from what he used to say in 2014 election rallies. Earlier he was not PM but a desperate contender. He did what he had to do to win. Same with Kejriwal. Even now whenever there are state elections Modi switches to election mode. The issue with Kejriwal is apart from Delhi he does not have anything. He is desperate to win Punjab. So he is in election mode all the time.
His approach towards election is to point out the failures of other contenders, which is understandable. But where he is lacking is how he takles Delhi. There is no doubt that Central Govt is not letting him function but then why should they? They have Constitutional powers and are using them. Initially when Kejriwal berated Modi for not letting Delhi work, we had some sympathy. But same thing repeated again and again started sounding boring. He has started sounding less mature and repetetive.
He has to solve the issues himself. Either go to court or get some political accumen. Don’t come crying to public every other day. If court can’t also help you then function within the realms of reality or try something else. Modi asked for vote in 2014 berating Gandhi, Vadra, Lalu, Mulayam and others. He did the same in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand. When he did that in Bihar too, people had had enough. He course corrected in Assam and results were there for everyone to see.
I feel the cries have gone one for long now. You saw the support dwindling in MCD by-elections. It’s time now to spread positive publicity by your good actions. Take the public welfare to next level and let people compare facilties in Delhi with that in their own state. If you continue to choose crying path, you have the right, but you would be going in wrong direction. The support would dwindle. If you still wan’t to point out the BJP negatives, let your surrogates do it. Don’t do the dirty deed yourself. It takes away from your personal positives.
I would like you to learn from Modi in this regard. After the bad PR of his high profile foreign visits, Madisson Square or drum beats, he has made his travels low key affairs. He has let state units fight state elections after Bihar fiasco. He didn’t even put Vadra or Pawar behind bars as he needs Rajya Sabha support. You also have to find other ways to function even if Central Govt is not letting you to function. Preempt the repurcussions rather than come crying to public. We have only so much tissues to offer.
Britain’s moment of Trump(h)
Britain has voted for exiting the European Union putting to rest months of uncertainty and leading the global economy towards unchartered territory.
A lot was said as to how bad Brexit would be for UK economy and UK political standing. People campaigning for Leave were termed racists, xenophobic and what not. Still people decided to leave. Just as we did not ask when Trump won Republican Primary, we are still not asking the right questions. I see a lot of analysts and pundits calling it a dark day and a bug loss for humanity. Seriously? People of a nation determining their future, if that is a black day, then something wrong with the analysis.
Those who wanted to Remain and a huge number of them, have to introspect why they lost. No point blaming the other side. Why was it that people chose to leave? To understand that well off ones have to come out of their palaces. This includes media pundits. Stop demonizing the poor’s as racists. These people want jobs, security. Why call them xenophobic?
How I read this outcome is, majority of population have been left behind. Majority of population has not benefitted from European Union. A lot of them have benefitted and it is evident from 52-48 split. But the majority has been left behind and ignored. When they raise voices, they were called bad names. Hence they took matter to the ballot.
Same happened in case of Trump. He invigorated the silent majority. People who have been left far behind. People who were at the fag end of economic spectrum. People who have gained nothing for decades. I felt bad when Trump voters were demonized as racists in the similar way. Pundits could have called Trump a racist, but calling the voters names was outright wrong.
Now is the time for course correction. Its up to the 48% people now. Do they want to take 52% along towards prosperity or not? Further alienation and subjugation might lead to much worse consequences. I am not much too happy with Brexit myself. But will be happy if this is taken as a sign to stop taking the bourgeois for granted.
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